Condominium Market Update

Year-ago comparisons of condominium sales in the Greater Boston Area suggest that the market is tightening and an upward trend is emerging as a result of low inventory of properties available for sale - low supply. Let us look at the numbers. The time period in this year-ago analysis compares sales data during the period July 1, 2006 through June 30, 2007 with July 1, 2007 through June 30, 2008. The data is derived from the MLS data base - representing true, arms-length transactions.

In Greater Boston, including the cities and towns affiliated with the Greater Boston Real Estate Board (GBREB), the number of sales is down by 15% and the number of listings available for sale is lower by 13%. Median price is up by 3%. The proportion of prIce reductions during the marketing phase is lower: in 2006-2007 prices of 48% of the listings were reduced while in 2007-2008, prices of 44% were reduced.

In Brookline, the number of sales is down by 12% while listings available for sale are down by 17%. Median price is up by 1%. There have also been fewer price reductions - 43% in 2007-2008 versus 45% in the previous year.

In Newton, the number of sales is flat - almost the same number sold in each period - while listings available for sale are down by 21%. Median price is down by 6%. Fewer listings have had price adjustments. In 2006-2007, prices of 54% of the listings were reduced prior to selling while in 2007-2008, prices of only 25% were reduced prior to selling.

Cambridge condominim sales are down by 21%. The number of listings on the market for sale is down by 15%. Median price is also down by 2%. And price reductions continue to increase. In 2006-2007, prices of 39% of the lisitngs were reduced prior to selling while in 2007-2008, prices of 41% of the listings were reduced. Cambridge sellers appear to be holding  price and accepting fewer sales.

In Belmont, just west of Cambridge, known among some as "Cambridge-west", the number of sales is down by 12%, but median price is up 4%. The number of listings coming to market for sale is down by 16%. Price adjustements are basically unchanged - 51% and 50 % respectively.

This data suggests that lower inventory levels - as represented by the number of listings coming to market for sale (i.e. supply) - may be starting to stimulate price increases in certain locations. However, the fairly consistent ratios of price reductions suggest that sellers are not quite ready to accept the realities of the marketplace. Reduced inventory  may be the result of the absorption of some of the excess supply since 2005 as well as lack of new product coming to market as developers are cutting back and re-sellers are holding off, preferring to wait-out the market.

Now seems to be a Good Time To Buy - before prices start moving up and interest rates still hold at favorable levels.

07/01/2006 through 06/30/2007

 
Number Sold
Median Price
Avg. DOM
 
Avg. LP:SP
No. New Listings
No. Price Changes
% Price Changed
No. Pending
GBREB
10,461
 
$345,000
113
97%
20,661
9,888
48%
11,827
Brookline
652
$445,000
93
98%
1,029
464
45%
723
Newton
278
$455,000
132
96%
615
333
54%
309
Cambridge
1,010
$425,800
101
98%
1,498
590
39%
1,170
Belmont
77
$370,000
122
97%
172
88
51%
99

 

07/01/2007 through 06/30/2008

 
Number Sold
 
 
Avg. DOM
 
Avg. LP:SP
No. New Listings
No. Price Changes
% Price Changed
No. Pending
GBREB
8,887
 
$357,000
107
97%
17,942
7,906
44%
9,942
Brookline
568
$448,200
89
98%
851
362
43%
601
Newton
277
$451,000
107
97%
487
120
25%
311
Cambridge
798
$418,200
88
97%
1,269
515
41%
838
Belmont
68
$384,000
120
98%
144
72
50%
75


 
Percent Change 2007 - 2008

 
 
Number Sold
Median Price
Avg. DOM
 
Avg. LP:SP
No. New Listings
No. Price Changes
No. Pending
GBREB
(15%)
 
3%
(5%)
Flat
(13%)
(20%)
(16%)
Brookline
(12%)
1%
(4%)
Flat
(17%)
(22%)
(17%)
Newton
Flat
6%
(19%)
Up 1%
(21%)
(64%)
1%
Cambridge
(21)%
(2%)
(15%)
Dwn1%
(15%)
(13%)
(28%)
Belmont
(12%)
4%
(2%)
Up 1%
(16%)
(18%)
(24%)

Source: Derived from the MLS Data Base